Published Writing

See below for my published writing, in reverse-chronological order. Note that I have excluded from this page all the blogging I do at my personal newsletter, which amounts to roughly two posts on polling, data, and the news each week.

2020

In addition to the articles below, I wrote a weekly data-driven piece on electoral politics for The Economist’s “Checks and Balance” newsletter on US politics throughout the 2020 election cycle. Sadly, archives are not available.

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2020/11/14/our-analysis-of-the-election-results-suggests-that-2020-accelerated-a-long-running-trend

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2020/11/13/joe-bidens-victory-has-increased-public-confidence-in-a-covid-19-vaccine

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/11/11/once-again-less-educated-whites-spurned-americas-democratic-nominee

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/11/10/americas-urban-rural-partisan-gap-is-widening

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2020/11/06/election-models-survived-another-above-average-polling-error

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2020/11/05/polls-and-our-forecast-model-overestimated-support-for-joe-biden

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/11/02/the-swing-states-that-will-help-predict-the-election-outcome

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2020/11/01/joe-biden-really-is-in-pole-position

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2020/10/30/donald-trump-needs-an-above-average-polling-error-to-win-the-election

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2020/10/24/if-donald-trump-were-to-win-re-election-how-would-he-do-it

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/10/24/postal-voting-could-put-americas-democrats-at-a-disadvantage

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2020/10/23/facing-a-rout-donald-trump-has-no-time-left-to-turn-things-around

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/10/22/will-donald-trump-pull-off-another-last-minute-upset

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2020/10/16/joe-biden-could-get-a-boost-from-undecided-voters

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/10/12/amy-coney-barrett-is-the-least-popular-supreme-court-nominee-in-recent-history

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2020/10/11/the-race-for-the-white-house-is-a-little-closer-than-it-looks

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2020/10/10/at-risk-of-losing-texas-republicans-scheme-to-limit-democratic-votes

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2020/10/09/more-americans-are-voting-early-this-year-than-in-2016

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2020/10/04/donald-trumps-illness-may-shorten-the-odds-of-his-losing-the-election

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2020/10/02/how-will-donald-trumps-covid-diagnosis-shape-the-race

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/09/30/donald-trump-did-himself-no-favours-in-the-first-presidential-debate

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2020/09/28/american-presidential-debates-rarely-change-election-outcomes

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2020/09/24/democrats-are-doing-less-badly-among-rural-voters

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/09/24/in-america-your-absentee-ballot-is-more-likely-to-be-counted-if-youre-white

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/09/16/why-donald-trump-is-losing-support-from-whites-without-college-degrees

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2020/09/12/donald-trump-could-still-stage-a-comeback-again

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2020/09/03/how-much-do-polls-move-after-labor-day

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2020/09/02/donald-trump-tries-out-law-and-order-talk-on-suburban-voters

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/08/26/the-republican-convention-is-unlikely-to-save-donald-trump

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2020/08/22/more-mail-in-voting-doubles-the-chances-of-recounts-in-close-states

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/08/18/how-donald-trump-polarised-postal-voting

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2020/08/15/americas-decennial-census-and-covid-19

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/08/15/how-americas-electoral-college-favours-white-voters

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/08/10/joe-bidens-vice-presidential-pick-is-unlikely-to-sway-very-many-voters

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2020/08/08/americans-should-worry-less-about-foreigners-and-voter-fraud

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2020/08/08/residents-of-washington-dc-could-once-vote-for-congress

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/07/07/many-americans-are-ready-to-question-the-result-of-the-presidential-election

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2020/07/02/donald-trump-faces-a-much-bigger-task-than-he-did-in-2016

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/06/12/americas-anachronistic-electoral-college-gives-republicans-an-edge

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2020/06/11/meet-our-us-2020-election-forecasting-model

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2020/06/02/the-violence-in-american-cities-reflects-the-fury-of-polarisation

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/05/15/the-coronavirus-may-have-peaked-in-america

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2020/05/02/we-spent-the-lockdown-sorting-american-voters-into-380000-distinct-groups

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/04/25/the-south-is-likely-to-have-americas-highest-death-rate-from-covid-19

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/04/24/many-poor-americans-cant-afford-to-isolate-themselves

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/04/15/americans-are-not-rallying-around-donald-trump-during-the-pandemic

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/04/02/american-states-responses-to-the-coronavirus-follow-party-lines

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2020/03/19/joe-biden-builds-an-insurmountable-lead

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2020/03/12/working-class-whites-deserted-bernie-sanders-in-the-midwest

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/03/11/in-america-even-pandemics-are-political

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/03/03/political-bettors-pick-joe-biden-as-the-democrat-best-able-to-beat-donald-trump

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2020/02/22/why-donald-trumps-high-approval-ratings-may-be-misleading

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2020/02/09/the-democrats-risk-having-no-clear-nominee-to-challenge-donald-trump

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2020/02/01/who-will-be-donald-trumps-most-forceful-foe

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/02/01/under-ranked-choice-voting-left-wing-purism-would-aid-joe-biden

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/01/20/higher-minimum-wages-are-linked-to-lower-suicide-rates

2019

https://projects.economist.com/uk-elections/2019/general-election-results

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/12/14/a-plurality-of-americans-but-not-of-states-want-donald-trump-impeached

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/12/10/democrats-issue-their-charge-sheet-against-donald-trump

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/12/07/voting-lib-dem-could-hurt-the-tories-as-much-as-labour

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/11/25/within-voting-precincts-migration-made-little-difference-to-donald-trumps-vote

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/11/19/after-uber-arrives-heavy-drinking-increases

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/11/16/why-obama-trump-swing-voters-like-heavy-metal

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/11/11/poorly-educated-voters-hold-the-keys-to-the-white-house

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/10/30/an-nba-controversy-sparks-social-media-manipulation

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/10/25/how-being-second-choice-could-put-elizabeth-warren-on-top

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2019/11/28/michael-bloombergs-unlikely-presidential-candidacy

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2019/11/21/why-a-left-wing-nominee-would-hurt-democrats

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2019/11/14/democrats-want-impeachment-hearings-to-change-opinions-on-donald-trump

https://www.economist.com/democracy-in-america/2019/10/24/americans-views-on-impeachment-mirror-the-presidents-approval-ratings

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/10/11/who-is-winning-the-race-for-westminster

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2019/10/05/texas-wont-go-blue

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2019/09/28/a-new-iphone-feature-poses-a-threat-to-opinion-pollsters

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/09/23/do-congressional-retirements-help-predict-american-election-outcomes

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2019/09/14/what-a-republican-victory-in-north-carolina-means-for-2020

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/09/06/americans-are-souring-on-the-economy

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2019/09/07/there-is-more-to-north-carolinas-special-election-than-donald-trump

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/08/29/socially-liberal-companies-really-do-contribute-more-to-democrats

https://projects.economist.com/democratic-primaries-2020/

https://www.economist.com/democracy-in-america/2019/08/07/how-democrats-might-woo-undecided-voters-in-2020

https://www.economist.com/democracy-in-america/2019/07/26/when-to-pay-attention-to-2020-forecasts

https://www.economist.com/democracy-in-america/2019/06/21/a-large-share-of-republicans-hold-progressive-economic-views

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/07/06/if-everyone-had-voted-hillary-clinton-would-probably-be-president

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/06/24/missouris-only-abortion-clinic-loses-its-licence

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/05/27/greater-access-to-abortion-may-have-reduced-americas-crime-rate

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/08/08/americas-social-media-addiction-is-getting-worse

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/08/05/americans-increasingly-favour-tighter-gun-control

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/07/31/is-the-2020-democratic-field-too-crowded

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/07/22/is-congress-rigged-in-favour-of-the-rich

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/07/15/america-is-detaining-more-migrants-than-ever-before

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/06/28/in-their-first-primary-debate-democrats-focused-on-the-issues

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/06/11/how-to-spot-a-recession

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/06/10/conservative-party-leadership-contenders-propose-tax-cuts-for-high-earners

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2019/07/25/should-political-parties-really-let-anyone-run-for-president

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2019/07/06/the-best-line-in-the-first-televised-debate-may-hurt-the-democrats

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2019/06/22/presidential-debates-seldom-move-opinion-polls

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2019/06/15/donald-trumps-presidency-has-moved-america-left

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/06/07/britains-major-parties-are-weaker-than-ever-before

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/06/03/chernobyl-is-on-track-to-become-the-highest-rated-tv-series-ever

https://www.economist.com/democracy-in-america/2019/06/03/how-americas-urban-rural-divide-shapes-elections

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/05/27/greater-access-to-abortion-may-have-reduced-americas-crime-rate

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2019/05/25/american-voters-dont-care-about-the-economy

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/05/25/china-is-surprisingly-carbon-efficient-but-still-the-worlds-biggest-emitter

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/05/21/did-pollsters-misread-australias-election-or-did-pundits

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/05/11/how-mount-everest-went-mainstream

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2019/05/11/race-plays-an-ever-more-important-role-in-voting

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/05/08/middle-americas-brain-drain

https://www.economist.com/democracy-in-america/2019/04/25/high-mid-terms-turnout-was-driven-by-young-and-hispanic-americans

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2019/04/20/republican-state-legislatures-are-overturning-ballot-initiatives

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/04/18/attempts-to-improve-public-health-in-bangladesh-appear-to-have-misfired

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2019/04/20/at-this-stage-in-the-democratic-primary-polls-are-unreliable

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2019/04/13/for-the-first-time-ever-a-majority-of-democrats-identify-as-liberals

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/04/03/for-americans-trusting-the-media-has-become-a-partisan-issue

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/03/29/mps-brexit-votes-reveal-myriad-divisions-among-the-tories

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/03/27/robert-mueller-is-more-popular-with-trump-voters-than-he-has-ever-been

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/03/21/the-market-is-betting-on-climate-change

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2019/03/21/democrats-raise-doubts-about-georgias-election-for-governor

https://www.economist.com/democracy-in-america/2019/03/15/beto-orourke-heads-to-iowa

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/03/05/climate-change-will-affect-more-than-the-weather

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2019/02/28/the-politicisation-of-white-evangelical-christianity-is-hurting-it

https://www.economist.com/democracy-in-america/2019/02/19/do-voter-id-laws-reduce-turnout-among-black-americans

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/02/19/the-democratic-presidential-field-already-looks-crowded

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/02/07/will-bitcoins-price-crash-cut-into-its-energy-use

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/02/06/donald-trump-doubled-down-in-his-state-of-the-union-speech

https://www.economist.com/democracy-in-america/2019/01/30/why-third-party-presidential-candidates-fail

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/01/18/new-allegations-against-donald-trump-raise-the-odds-of-impeachment

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/01/15/tariffs-are-ineffective-as-well-as-counterproductive

https://www.economist.com/democracy-in-america/2019/01/11/why-dont-other-countries-governments-shut-down

https://www.economist.com/democracy-in-america/2019/01/30/why-third-party-presidential-candidates-fail

https://www.economist.com/democracy-in-america/2019/01/07/elizabeth-warren-kicks-off-her-presidential-campaign-in-iowa

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/01/07/the-us-government-is-now-in-its-second-longest-shutdown

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/01/05/the-failure-of-gerrymandering

2018

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2018/12/08/election-fraud-in-north-carolinas-ninth-district

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2018/12/08/democrats-did-much-better-in-rural-america-than-you-think

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2018/11/16/obama-trump-voters-turn-back-to-democrats

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2018/11/17/recounts-in-florida

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2018/11/08/when-voters-make-policy-changes-themselves

https://www.economist.com/democracy-in-america/2018/11/06/will-democrats-fundraising-edge-help-them-flip-the-house

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2018/11/06/americas-2018-mid-term-elections-results

https://www.economist.com/democracy-in-america/2018/11/05/what-to-expect-when-youre-expecting-election-results

https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2018/11/05/why-dont-latinos-vote

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2018/10/17/democrats-are-winning-voters-wallets-and-perhaps-their-hearts-as-well

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2018/10/13/hispanic-voters-and-the-mid-terms

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2018/10/06/ending-gerrymandering

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2018/09/28/brett-kavanaugh-may-have-fared-better-with-senators-than-voters

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2018/09/21/democrats-turn-to-female-candidates-in-2018

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2018/09/20/far-left-candidates-did-poorly-in-the-democratic-primaries

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2018/09/08/donald-trumps-approval-ratings-are-pulled-down-by-college-educated-whites

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2018/09/01/googling-the-news

https://www.economist.com/democracy-in-america/2018/08/28/how-college-educated-suburbanites-could-swing-the-house

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2018/08/24/most-trump-voters-would-not-care-if-he-had-used-the-n-word

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2018/07/21/male-voters-are-sticking-with-the-republican-party

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2018/07/21/voting-machines-in-america-are-reassuringly-hard-to-hack

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2018/07/16/mainstream-election-forecasting-could-be-improved-by-a-popular-academic-approach

https://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2018/07/daily-chart-7

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2018/07/05/for-2018-world-cup-predictors-football-is-coming-home

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/two-ways-of-thinking-about-election-predictions-and-what-they-tell-us-about-2018/

https://www.economist.com/news/united-states/21738400-still-consistent-idea-democratic-wave-conor-lamb-likely-lose

2017

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/14/upshot/how-much-can-the-youth-vote-actually-help-democrats.html