Published Writing

See below for my published writing, in reverse-chronological order. Note that I have excluded from this page all the blogging I do at my personal newsletter, which amounts to roughly two posts on polling, data, and the news each week.


2021

Apart from what you see below, I also write The Economist’s weekly “Checks and Balance” newsletter on US politics. You can sign up here to get these in your inbox, but sadly the archives are not available online.

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2021/03/29/a-new-book-explains-how-social-media-promotes-political-polarisation

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2021/03/27/how-a-racist-film-helped-the-klu-klux-klan-grow-for-generations

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2021/02/27/its-donald-trumps-party-republicans-are-just-living-in-it

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2021/03/26/americans-are-surprisingly-hesitant-to-expand-voting-access

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2021/03/23/the-pandemic-appears-to-have-sparked-a-rise-in-anti-asian-bigotry

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2021/03/13/how-the-2020-census-may-help-republicans-regain-power-in-washington

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2021/02/26/joe-bidens-19trn-stimulus-package-is-one-of-the-most-popular-bills-in-decades

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2021/02/12/joe-bidens-approval-ratings-are-more-polarised-than-donald-trumps

2020

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2020/11/14/our-analysis-of-the-election-results-suggests-that-2020-accelerated-a-long-running-trend

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2020/11/13/joe-bidens-victory-has-increased-public-confidence-in-a-covid-19-vaccine

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/11/11/once-again-less-educated-whites-spurned-americas-democratic-nominee

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/11/10/americas-urban-rural-partisan-gap-is-widening

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2020/11/06/election-models-survived-another-above-average-polling-error

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2020/11/05/polls-and-our-forecast-model-overestimated-support-for-joe-biden

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/11/02/the-swing-states-that-will-help-predict-the-election-outcome

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2020/11/01/joe-biden-really-is-in-pole-position

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2020/10/30/donald-trump-needs-an-above-average-polling-error-to-win-the-election

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2020/10/24/if-donald-trump-were-to-win-re-election-how-would-he-do-it

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/10/24/postal-voting-could-put-americas-democrats-at-a-disadvantage

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2020/10/23/facing-a-rout-donald-trump-has-no-time-left-to-turn-things-around

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/10/22/will-donald-trump-pull-off-another-last-minute-upset

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2020/10/16/joe-biden-could-get-a-boost-from-undecided-voters

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/10/12/amy-coney-barrett-is-the-least-popular-supreme-court-nominee-in-recent-history

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2020/10/11/the-race-for-the-white-house-is-a-little-closer-than-it-looks

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2020/10/10/at-risk-of-losing-texas-republicans-scheme-to-limit-democratic-votes

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2020/10/09/more-americans-are-voting-early-this-year-than-in-2016

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2020/10/04/donald-trumps-illness-may-shorten-the-odds-of-his-losing-the-election

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2020/10/02/how-will-donald-trumps-covid-diagnosis-shape-the-race

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/09/30/donald-trump-did-himself-no-favours-in-the-first-presidential-debate

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2020/09/28/american-presidential-debates-rarely-change-election-outcomes

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2020/09/24/democrats-are-doing-less-badly-among-rural-voters

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/09/24/in-america-your-absentee-ballot-is-more-likely-to-be-counted-if-youre-white

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/09/16/why-donald-trump-is-losing-support-from-whites-without-college-degrees

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2020/09/12/donald-trump-could-still-stage-a-comeback-again

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2020/09/03/how-much-do-polls-move-after-labor-day

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2020/09/02/donald-trump-tries-out-law-and-order-talk-on-suburban-voters

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/08/26/the-republican-convention-is-unlikely-to-save-donald-trump

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2020/08/22/more-mail-in-voting-doubles-the-chances-of-recounts-in-close-states

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/08/18/how-donald-trump-polarised-postal-voting

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2020/08/15/americas-decennial-census-and-covid-19

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/08/15/how-americas-electoral-college-favours-white-voters

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/08/10/joe-bidens-vice-presidential-pick-is-unlikely-to-sway-very-many-voters

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2020/08/08/americans-should-worry-less-about-foreigners-and-voter-fraud

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2020/08/08/residents-of-washington-dc-could-once-vote-for-congress

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/07/07/many-americans-are-ready-to-question-the-result-of-the-presidential-election

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2020/07/02/donald-trump-faces-a-much-bigger-task-than-he-did-in-2016

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/06/12/americas-anachronistic-electoral-college-gives-republicans-an-edge

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2020/06/11/meet-our-us-2020-election-forecasting-model

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2020/06/02/the-violence-in-american-cities-reflects-the-fury-of-polarisation

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/05/15/the-coronavirus-may-have-peaked-in-america

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2020/05/02/we-spent-the-lockdown-sorting-american-voters-into-380000-distinct-groups

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/04/25/the-south-is-likely-to-have-americas-highest-death-rate-from-covid-19

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/04/24/many-poor-americans-cant-afford-to-isolate-themselves

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/04/15/americans-are-not-rallying-around-donald-trump-during-the-pandemic

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/04/02/american-states-responses-to-the-coronavirus-follow-party-lines

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2020/03/19/joe-biden-builds-an-insurmountable-lead

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2020/03/12/working-class-whites-deserted-bernie-sanders-in-the-midwest

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/03/11/in-america-even-pandemics-are-political

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/03/03/political-bettors-pick-joe-biden-as-the-democrat-best-able-to-beat-donald-trump

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2020/02/22/why-donald-trumps-high-approval-ratings-may-be-misleading

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2020/02/09/the-democrats-risk-having-no-clear-nominee-to-challenge-donald-trump

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2020/02/01/who-will-be-donald-trumps-most-forceful-foe

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/02/01/under-ranked-choice-voting-left-wing-purism-would-aid-joe-biden

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/01/20/higher-minimum-wages-are-linked-to-lower-suicide-rates

2019

https://projects.economist.com/uk-elections/2019/general-election-results

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/12/14/a-plurality-of-americans-but-not-of-states-want-donald-trump-impeached

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/12/10/democrats-issue-their-charge-sheet-against-donald-trump

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/12/07/voting-lib-dem-could-hurt-the-tories-as-much-as-labour

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/11/25/within-voting-precincts-migration-made-little-difference-to-donald-trumps-vote

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/11/19/after-uber-arrives-heavy-drinking-increases

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/11/16/why-obama-trump-swing-voters-like-heavy-metal

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/11/11/poorly-educated-voters-hold-the-keys-to-the-white-house

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/10/30/an-nba-controversy-sparks-social-media-manipulation

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/10/25/how-being-second-choice-could-put-elizabeth-warren-on-top

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2019/11/28/michael-bloombergs-unlikely-presidential-candidacy

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2019/11/21/why-a-left-wing-nominee-would-hurt-democrats

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2019/11/14/democrats-want-impeachment-hearings-to-change-opinions-on-donald-trump

https://www.economist.com/democracy-in-america/2019/10/24/americans-views-on-impeachment-mirror-the-presidents-approval-ratings

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/10/11/who-is-winning-the-race-for-westminster

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2019/10/05/texas-wont-go-blue

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2019/09/28/a-new-iphone-feature-poses-a-threat-to-opinion-pollsters

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/09/23/do-congressional-retirements-help-predict-american-election-outcomes

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2019/09/14/what-a-republican-victory-in-north-carolina-means-for-2020

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/09/06/americans-are-souring-on-the-economy

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2019/09/07/there-is-more-to-north-carolinas-special-election-than-donald-trump

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/08/29/socially-liberal-companies-really-do-contribute-more-to-democrats

https://projects.economist.com/democratic-primaries-2020/

https://www.economist.com/democracy-in-america/2019/08/07/how-democrats-might-woo-undecided-voters-in-2020

https://www.economist.com/democracy-in-america/2019/07/26/when-to-pay-attention-to-2020-forecasts

https://www.economist.com/democracy-in-america/2019/06/21/a-large-share-of-republicans-hold-progressive-economic-views

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/07/06/if-everyone-had-voted-hillary-clinton-would-probably-be-president

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/06/24/missouris-only-abortion-clinic-loses-its-licence

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/05/27/greater-access-to-abortion-may-have-reduced-americas-crime-rate

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/08/08/americas-social-media-addiction-is-getting-worse

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/08/05/americans-increasingly-favour-tighter-gun-control

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/07/31/is-the-2020-democratic-field-too-crowded

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/07/22/is-congress-rigged-in-favour-of-the-rich

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/07/15/america-is-detaining-more-migrants-than-ever-before

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/06/28/in-their-first-primary-debate-democrats-focused-on-the-issues

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/06/11/how-to-spot-a-recession

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/06/10/conservative-party-leadership-contenders-propose-tax-cuts-for-high-earners

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2019/07/25/should-political-parties-really-let-anyone-run-for-president

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2019/07/06/the-best-line-in-the-first-televised-debate-may-hurt-the-democrats

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2019/06/22/presidential-debates-seldom-move-opinion-polls

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2019/06/15/donald-trumps-presidency-has-moved-america-left

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/06/07/britains-major-parties-are-weaker-than-ever-before

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/06/03/chernobyl-is-on-track-to-become-the-highest-rated-tv-series-ever

https://www.economist.com/democracy-in-america/2019/06/03/how-americas-urban-rural-divide-shapes-elections

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/05/27/greater-access-to-abortion-may-have-reduced-americas-crime-rate

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2019/05/25/american-voters-dont-care-about-the-economy

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/05/25/china-is-surprisingly-carbon-efficient-but-still-the-worlds-biggest-emitter

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/05/21/did-pollsters-misread-australias-election-or-did-pundits

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/05/11/how-mount-everest-went-mainstream

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2019/05/11/race-plays-an-ever-more-important-role-in-voting

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/05/08/middle-americas-brain-drain

https://www.economist.com/democracy-in-america/2019/04/25/high-mid-terms-turnout-was-driven-by-young-and-hispanic-americans

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2019/04/20/republican-state-legislatures-are-overturning-ballot-initiatives

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/04/18/attempts-to-improve-public-health-in-bangladesh-appear-to-have-misfired

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2019/04/20/at-this-stage-in-the-democratic-primary-polls-are-unreliable

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2019/04/13/for-the-first-time-ever-a-majority-of-democrats-identify-as-liberals

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/04/03/for-americans-trusting-the-media-has-become-a-partisan-issue

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/03/29/mps-brexit-votes-reveal-myriad-divisions-among-the-tories

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/03/27/robert-mueller-is-more-popular-with-trump-voters-than-he-has-ever-been

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/03/21/the-market-is-betting-on-climate-change

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2019/03/21/democrats-raise-doubts-about-georgias-election-for-governor

https://www.economist.com/democracy-in-america/2019/03/15/beto-orourke-heads-to-iowa

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/03/05/climate-change-will-affect-more-than-the-weather

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2019/02/28/the-politicisation-of-white-evangelical-christianity-is-hurting-it

https://www.economist.com/democracy-in-america/2019/02/19/do-voter-id-laws-reduce-turnout-among-black-americans

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/02/19/the-democratic-presidential-field-already-looks-crowded

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/02/07/will-bitcoins-price-crash-cut-into-its-energy-use

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/02/06/donald-trump-doubled-down-in-his-state-of-the-union-speech

https://www.economist.com/democracy-in-america/2019/01/30/why-third-party-presidential-candidates-fail

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/01/18/new-allegations-against-donald-trump-raise-the-odds-of-impeachment

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/01/15/tariffs-are-ineffective-as-well-as-counterproductive

https://www.economist.com/democracy-in-america/2019/01/11/why-dont-other-countries-governments-shut-down

https://www.economist.com/democracy-in-america/2019/01/30/why-third-party-presidential-candidates-fail

https://www.economist.com/democracy-in-america/2019/01/07/elizabeth-warren-kicks-off-her-presidential-campaign-in-iowa

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/01/07/the-us-government-is-now-in-its-second-longest-shutdown

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/01/05/the-failure-of-gerrymandering

2018

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2018/12/08/election-fraud-in-north-carolinas-ninth-district

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2018/12/08/democrats-did-much-better-in-rural-america-than-you-think

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2018/11/16/obama-trump-voters-turn-back-to-democrats

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2018/11/17/recounts-in-florida

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2018/11/08/when-voters-make-policy-changes-themselves

https://www.economist.com/democracy-in-america/2018/11/06/will-democrats-fundraising-edge-help-them-flip-the-house

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2018/11/06/americas-2018-mid-term-elections-results

https://www.economist.com/democracy-in-america/2018/11/05/what-to-expect-when-youre-expecting-election-results

https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2018/11/05/why-dont-latinos-vote

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2018/10/17/democrats-are-winning-voters-wallets-and-perhaps-their-hearts-as-well

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2018/10/13/hispanic-voters-and-the-mid-terms

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2018/10/06/ending-gerrymandering

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2018/09/28/brett-kavanaugh-may-have-fared-better-with-senators-than-voters

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2018/09/21/democrats-turn-to-female-candidates-in-2018

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2018/09/20/far-left-candidates-did-poorly-in-the-democratic-primaries

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2018/09/08/donald-trumps-approval-ratings-are-pulled-down-by-college-educated-whites

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2018/09/01/googling-the-news

https://www.economist.com/democracy-in-america/2018/08/28/how-college-educated-suburbanites-could-swing-the-house

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2018/08/24/most-trump-voters-would-not-care-if-he-had-used-the-n-word

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2018/07/21/male-voters-are-sticking-with-the-republican-party

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2018/07/21/voting-machines-in-america-are-reassuringly-hard-to-hack

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2018/07/16/mainstream-election-forecasting-could-be-improved-by-a-popular-academic-approach

https://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2018/07/daily-chart-7

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2018/07/05/for-2018-world-cup-predictors-football-is-coming-home

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/two-ways-of-thinking-about-election-predictions-and-what-they-tell-us-about-2018/

https://www.economist.com/news/united-states/21738400-still-consistent-idea-democratic-wave-conor-lamb-likely-lose

2017

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/14/upshot/how-much-can-the-youth-vote-actually-help-democrats.html