Polls: Trump is underwater on tariffs, inflation and the economy

Trump's new "Liberation Day" tariffs threaten both the economy and his power

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America has had its “Liberation Day” and economies globally, including ours, are reeling. At 11:30 a.m. ET, the NASDAQ is down five percentage points and shows no signs of turning around. Markets in Asia and Europe this morning also sank. So far, the only thing being liberated is my 401k balance.

I was going to write a quicker and economics-y Take on this, but (a) I am not an economist and, relatedly, (b) think economics writers generally have the consequences covered. My impression from this smart economic analysis is that the universal 10% tariff on all imports, with significantly higher rates for certain countries, is generally not very thought through. In particular the historical data suggests that such broad tariffs often lead to increased consumer prices and strained international relations — threats the Trump administration and its allies have brushed off.

On this front, I’m particularly struck that Trump’s new tariffs have enacted a higher effective rate than even the infamous 1930 Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, which contributed to a significant decline in global trade and is basically unanimously credited with exacerbating the Great Depression.

Generously framed, in other words, the tariffs appear to be too severe in scope and magnitude to efficiently address the policy problems they are supposedly intended to solve. Ostensibly that’s poor manufacturing industry growth in the U.S., though also apparent is a general misunderstanding of the “trade deficit” by Trump (it’s good if Americans can buy cheap goods, eg sneakers and iPhones, to deploy capital for growth in other economic sectors). A less generous way of saying this is that the tariffs are dumb; some details appear even to be ChatGPT-level dumb.

To borrow from Jonathan Bernstein, part of the Good Politics/Bad Politics Substack trio:

(1) All the actual economists think this is going to be a disaster, and

(2) As far as anyone can figure out, no one in the administration did any careful analysis of any of it either.

The Tariffs Are Here

Hey, that’s a good idea, Jonathan! Let’s do some of the administration’s political analysis for them:

I. The new tariffs are deeply unpopular

One of the advantages of online polls is that firms can do surveys really, really fast. That risks capturing underreaction to news, as not everyone sampled has heard of events when they are asked questions about them, but does give us a good baseline.

On that note, a new YouGov poll conducted on April 2 finds that Trump’s “Liberation Day” (“Lib Day?”) tariffs are underwater by double digits. YouGov surveyed over 3,000 U.S. adults yesterday, and 51% said they either “somewhat” or “strongly” disapproved of the new policy. 15% “strongly” approved and 19% “somewhat” approved. By far the most common option was “strongly disapprove,” at 40%:

YouGov also found that the tariffs were underwater with political independents. They are opposed by 25 points, with 39% picking the “strongly disapprove” options. As a show of how unpopular this policy is, independents are actually even more opposed to tariffs than Americans as a whole:

Finally, YouGov found that most Americans expect the new tariffs to increase prices — which, inherently, they do.

The upshot of all of this: It seems unlikely that the average consumer is going to accept, on the low end, a price hike of 10 to 50% clothes and shoes (as two examples), or a significantly higher chance of a recession, on the high end, in exchange for whatever broad industry and national security goals the administration thinks it is accomplishing.

II. Trade and economics are Trump’s biggest weaknesses

The intense opposition to Trump’s new tariff plan is reflective of a broader weakness for the president on issues related to trade and the economy. To quantify this, I gathered the results of every public poll released in March that asked either all adults or registered voters a variant of the question: “Do you approve or disapprove of the job President Donald Trump is doing on ___”, where pollsters fill in one of many policy areas in the blank.

I then compiled all these results into a single spreadsheet and summarized them by broad policy area (for example, I combined questions asking about “inflation,” “jobs,” and “the economy” into just “the economy”). The results of this analysis are displayed in this table:

Data and code for this table is available here.

The polls show that Trump’s tariff and trade policy is, quite literally, the most unpopular part of his administration. He is strongest on immigration and crime, where net approval in abstract is +7. Americans also disapprove of Trump’s policies on Social Security and health care by 15 and 11 points, respectively. Trump gets slightly higher marks only on the economy, but he’s still underwater by 10 there with a clear majority of the public disapproving of the job he is doing.

What’s notable is that Trump’s approval on nearly every issue is below his overall average approval of -3 (47 to 50%, after rounding). This is something to watch; The lagging policy-specific numbers may be a leading indicator of where his overall number is heading.

III. Political consequences beyond public opinion

Aside from public opinion, there’s other electoral and politic impacts to consider, too. Historically, major economic disruptions like broad tariffs tend to create ripple effects far beyond immediate economic or polling indicators. Trump's new tariffs risk alienating key groups, including younger, working-class and middle-income voters who are more sensitive to increases in prices. These voters were all particularly reactive to inflation during Joe Biden’s presidency, and could drift back to the left if they view the new incumbent as failing to deliver on his promises.

Republicans in Congress, especially those from competitive suburban districts, may also be forced into uncomfortable positions — either publicly distancing themselves from Trump’s policy or facing backlash from constituents over rising costs. For example, four senators broke with Trump last night to vote against the tariffs on Canada, and could withhold support for the upcoming Republican tax bill and continuing budget unless Trump backs off his protectionist demands.

Retaliation will also play a role. In 2018, we saw that tariffs targeting agriculture products hurt US farmers and reduced GOP support in heavy farming areas of the country, contributing to losses in key Midwestern House districts. Since today's tariffs are even broader, the potential electoral consequences are larger. With Trump already underwater in polling on economic issues, doubling down on a deeply unpopular economic policy is politically risky at best.

Finally, the sweeping nature of these tariffs will almost certainly strain international relationships. Allies impacted by Trump’s tariffs — especially in Europe, Japan, and South Korea — will almost certainly retaliate, further depressing global trade and economic stability. They may also push countries with weaker ties and less leverage with the U.S. towards geopolitical rivals such as China and Russia. If you think backlash to the global world order was bad when Trump was focusing fire on Ukraine, think about how politics will change if China feels emboldened to attack Taiwan and the U.S. is forced to participate.

IV. The tariffs will continue until morale improves

For now, Trump appears devoted to eliminating America’s trade deficit with every other country, and shoring up domestic manufacturing along the way. One question is what he will do if those goals are not accomplished in short order. This week the market was stunned by Trump’s moves (evidently, the tariffs were not “priced in”), as they have been since he took office. It is possible they are underestimating additional moves by the president. Things could get worse, in other words, before they get better.

The initial economic and political effects of the tariffs, on the other hand, are increasingly obvious. Imports will slow and domestic prices will rise. Consumers, already signaling their displeasure, will move away from the incumbent party.

The administration is telling people to “wait and see” how things shake out, promising a return to American Greatness in manufacturing and U.S. hegemony in global trade policy if consumers can stomach the main. But with what they’ve seen so far, Americans are resoundingly rejecting that offer.