About me


Bio

I am a data journalist at The Economist based in Washington, DC. I write mostly about American politics and elections, usually by engaging in a close study of political science, political polling and demographic data.

This is a simple site for explaining my biography and listing all of my work in one place. At my old blog, thecrosstab.com, you’ll find more information, some big projects and a lot of aged posts. One day I may actually transfer that content here.

I also post a lot on Twitter:

I circulate a weekly email to people who want to know more about politics using data. You can read it at thecrosstab.substack.com or sign up below!

Background

Perhaps the work I am best known for is my election forecasts, which have enjoyed varied success since I began blogging about political statistics in 2015. These days, I am interested in how we can improve over the popular aggregation-based election forecasting methods by incorporating raw polling micro-data into our models. Such an approach can make crucial improvements in state-level polling, decreasing the biases in our national probabilistic estimates and producing more reliable day-to-day forecasts.

I received my undergraduate degrees in government and history from The University of Texas at Austin in 2018. As part of my coursework I also studied statistics and computer science. I used to intern at the Pew Research Center and briefly produced statistical models for the election returns startup Decision Desk HQ.

Broadly speaking, I am motivated by an interest to better understand the world using data science and predictive analytics. I also have a firmly-held belief in the power of political polling to improve democracy. Got any leads? Drop me a line!


News


  • October 18, 2019: I will be speaking at The George Washington University on data journalism, political analysis and election forecasting. Slides
  • September 30, 2019: I will be speaking at The University of Texas at Austin about my work for The Economist on what would happen in Americans elections if everyone turned out to vote. Slides
  • August 30, 2019: I will be presenting at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association on best practices in forecasting elections. Slides
  • January 19, 2019: I will be presenting at the annual meeting of the Southern Political Science Association on the success of my forecasting model for the 2018 mid-term elections, and on what the mid-terms tell us about politics (and 2020).


Selected work


Writing + code

Who will be Donald Trump’s most forceful foe? • The Economist

Who is winning the race for Westminster? • The Economist

When to pay attention to 2020 forecasts • The Economist

If everyone had voted, Hillary Clinton would probably be president • The Economist

Should political parties really let anyone run for president? • The Economist

The politicisation of white evangelical Christianity is hurting it • The Economist

The failure of gerrymandering • The Economist

What to expect when you’re expecting election results • The Economist

Two Ways of Thinking about Election Predictions and What They Tell Us About 2018 • The University of Virginia Center for Politics

How Much Can the Youth Vote Actually Help Democrats? • The New York Times Upshot

You can find all of my writing here

Just code

My package for doing political data analysis in the R programming language, politicaldata. • Link

My online course on R, “Analyzing Election and Polling Data in R”. • Link

Find more code on my blog


Contact


Want to get in touch? My email address is elliott (AT) thecrosstab (DOT) com.