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The less voters knew, the more they liked Trump in 2024. Not Anymore
The least-engaged Americans have swung 25 points against him since 2024 — about twice the shift among everyone else. Trump has flattened the engagement…
Feb 12
•
G. Elliott Morris
278
25
80
The election that broke Democratic Party strategy
Bill Clinton's victory in 1992 is supposed to prove that Democrats win when they move to the center. The data tells a different story
Feb 10
•
G. Elliott Morris
164
27
38
More evidence that a large share of "moderates" are non-ideological
A reader replicated my analysis of political ideology using alternative data
Feb 3
•
G. Elliott Morris
156
20
32
New poll: Trump loses ground on immigration; Dems lead 2026 House vote by 8 points
The new Strength In Numbers/Verasight poll finds Democrats start 2026 with their biggest lead yet on the 2026 House vote, while Trump approval sinks on…
Jan 21
•
G. Elliott Morris
181
19
39
Trump has made ICE a 70-30 issue — for Democrats
By using brutal force in public, ICE has given Democrats a chance to change how voters think about immigration policy. Will they take it?
Jan 15
•
G. Elliott Morris
362
35
101
How early is too early to look at midterm polls?
Early generic ballot polls are directionally useful, but the party out of power historically gains ground between now and November
Jan 13
•
G. Elliott Morris
83
5
10
Midterms are a backlash, not a referendum
The best predictor of historical midterm election outcomes is which party is in power, not its performance
Jan 6
•
G. Elliott Morris
134
26
18
Americans do not want war with Venezuela
Military intervention in the country is even more unpopular than Trump’s tariffs and health care cuts
Jan 4
•
G. Elliott Morris
366
26
96
What your news diet says about your politics
Breaking down Trump's approval and 2026 midterms vote by Americans' primary news source
Jan 2
•
G. Elliott Morris
240
25
54
The high cost of rolling over on immigration
What Matt Yglesias, Hakeem Jeffries, and Keir Starmer got wrong about the politics of immigration
Dec 16, 2025
•
G. Elliott Morris
173
26
53
How cable news fueled the culture war and broke U.S. politics
News organizations, and not just Fox News, focus on inflammatory stories, polarizing voters and tilting political agendas to the right
Dec 9, 2025
•
G. Elliott Morris
288
21
83
Eight charts that explain why "affordability" is suddenly everywhere
All politics is affordability now
Dec 2, 2025
•
G. Elliott Morris
173
23
35
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