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Beware phantom poll swings (and how to spot them)
Democrats' lead on the House generic ballot "dropped" 1-2 points over the last month. It will likely go back up, but this is a good reminder that even…
Jun 23
•
G. Elliott Morris
120
5
20
Democrats lead by 13 points on trust to handle voters' top problems
This poll question has predicted all but one election since 1948. It suggests Democrats could win by 8-12 points in November.
Jun 16
•
G. Elliott Morris
208
9
43
Yes, Americans are polarized. But that doesn't prevent wave elections
A popular measure of intra-party loyalty in polls artificially inflates electoral stability and ignores the crucial role that turnout plays in close…
Jun 9
•
G. Elliott Morris
158
17
26
How many Trump voters does James Talarico need in order to win the Texas U.S. Senate race?
The math isn't as hard as people think. Democrats need to flip about 1 in 15 Republicans — turnout and independents do the rest.
Jun 2
•
G. Elliott Morris
231
43
43
Americans blame Trump for the cost-of-living crisis. Here's what they want done about it.
A new Strength In Numbers/Verasight poll finds 58% of Americans say Trump has made the economy worse — and voters are blaming him, not Biden, for the…
May 27
•
G. Elliott Morris
200
10
53
Poll: Trump’s approval rating hits another low on prices as Democrats hit +8 on generic ballot
Our new Strength In Numbers/Verasight poll finds Trump's job approval on prices falling to -47, and a record 39% of Americans naming prices as the…
May 26
•
G. Elliott Morris
199
7
43
Independents and 2024 non-voters have swung back left
The big story in the new NYT/Siena poll isn't Trump's 37% approval (although that's very bad) — it's a 24-point swing among persuadable voters
May 19
•
G. Elliott Morris
225
28
50
This year’s U.S. House elections will be least competitive on record
In 1976, 101 U.S. House seats were structurally competitive. Under the new 2026 maps, that number could fall to 33 — and just 15 are true toss-ups
May 12
•
G. Elliott Morris
117
14
28
Democrats now have to win the House vote by 4 points due to Republican gerrymandering
A new analysis by Strength In Numbers reveals the impacts of mid-decade and post-VRA redistricting by Republicans, with the now-missing Democratic…
May 10
•
G. Elliott Morris
156
25
35
The simple statistical error Republican Supreme Court justices used to gut the VRA
The Court says vote dilution can be proven only after "controlling" racial polarization for partisan polarization. This is a nonsensical and impossible…
May 8
•
G. Elliott Morris
246
13
93
This is why Republicans won't break with Trump on policy
Most are from uncompetitive districts or simply ignore public opinion, and Tuesday's primary wins for Trump's allies only incentivize further…
May 6
•
G. Elliott Morris
169
26
33
It'll be years before Americans get used to higher prices — and politicians can't just wait it out
Consumers will eventually adjust, but in the meantime, they'll keep punishing leaders who don't act
May 5
•
G. Elliott Morris
and
David Nir
131
21
36
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