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Two big questions about the polls right now
Are respondents too progressive? And is weighting by past vote increasing support for Republicans?
15 hrs ago
•
G. Elliott Morris
115
4
19
Deep Dive episode: Everything you wanted to know about prediction markets, with Rajiv Sethi
Are markets better than pollsters? Why did the whiff on the pope so bad?
Aug 27
•
G. Elliott Morris
and
Rajiv Sethi
62
4
12
58:34
Poll: New low for Trump on prices and foreign policy, now net negative on border security
The president lost his last positive issue, and the gap between strong disapproval and strong approval is now nearly 3-to-1 (50% vs 17%)
Aug 26
•
G. Elliott Morris
208
4
52
An updated look at Trump's approval rating in every neighborhood
Plus, what words voters use to describe the president and how thats changed over time. Your weekly political data roundup for August 23, 2026.
Aug 23
•
G. Elliott Morris
248
11
45
Are the polls overestimating Democrats again?
It is tempting to “unskew” polls after repeat misses. But predicting future poll bias only works until it doesn’t
Aug 21
•
G. Elliott Morris
178
16
34
A troubling trend of fake polls and lying pollsters, with FiftyPlusOne’s Mary Radcliffe
We discuss three recent examples of fabricated or undisclosed campaign polling, and how to stay vigilant in the wild west of cheap and fake surveys
Aug 20
•
G. Elliott Morris
and
Mary Radcliffe
118
7
18
46:40
What percent of Wisconsin likely Democratic primary voters are ages 18-30?
This is a surprisingly important question that nobody has an exact answer to
Aug 18
•
G. Elliott Morris
14
2
2
Is Abdul El-Sayed going to lose Michigan?
The Democratic nominee is running behind expectations, and everyone thinks they know why. But it's early — and I think we all know a lot less than we…
Aug 18
•
G. Elliott Morris
184
113
35
KILL THE VAMPIRES
A follow-up on Wisconsin's polling miss and potential scale of non-response from moderates
Aug 14
•
G. Elliott Morris
22
3
4
It’s not just young Democrats who like lefty candidates
Both young and old Democrats rate figures like Zohran Mamdani and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez highly. But the young sharply criticize their party, driving…
Aug 14
•
G. Elliott Morris
178
15
41
Can we trust the polls in 2026?
Maybe, maybe not — but primary polling isn't going to tell you either way
Aug 13
•
G. Elliott Morris
and
David Nir
106
6
13
30:49
I reanalyzed the raw data from Wisconsin's primary polls. Here's what actually went wrong.
What raw data from Wisconsin's Democratic primary reveals about demographic weighting, late movement, and who answers polls
Aug 13
•
G. Elliott Morris
235
19
39
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