Subscribe
Sign in
Home
Podcast
Premium
Discord
Projects
Polls
Data Lab
Data
Book
Contact
Archive
Newsletters
Perks
About
Latest
Top
Discussions
Who has already voted for the 2026 midterms? Who’s undecided? How might they vote?
Why undecided voters probably won’t care about Trump’s closing message, and an early voting update. Your weekly political data roundup for October 25…
8 hrs ago
•
G. Elliott Morris
164
20
29
Poll: Low-information voters have turned hardest against Trump and the GOP
Trump voters who can't answer two basic questions about politics are three times as likely as other Trump voters to back Democrats for the House. This…
Oct 23
•
G. Elliott Morris
274
19
67
How FiftyPlusOne busted a fake pollster
Elliott and David talk to Mary Radcliffe at FiftyPlusOne about our investigation into Wedgewood Polls and SoCal Strategies
Oct 22
•
G. Elliott Morris
,
David Nir
, and
Mary Radcliffe
142
1
27
53:30
These 2024 Trump voters no longer admit to voting for him
Poll respondents who change their recalled vote from Trump to Harris (or not voting) largely disapprove of Trump — and that could be skewing polls
Oct 22
•
G. Elliott Morris
164
18
24
Poll: Democrats post their biggest generic-ballot lead yet, two weeks out
Democrats lead by 10 among registered voters and 12 among likely voters, both highs for our poll, as Trump sets new lows on immigration and border…
Oct 21
•
G. Elliott Morris
180
11
31
Republicans are skipping early voting. Will they show up on Election Day?
In North Carolina, Democrats have cast 70% of the two parties' early ballots, the most lopsided split at this point since at least 2006.
Oct 20
•
G. Elliott Morris
224
13
39
Deep Dive episode: You need to know about these changes to the federal statistical system, with Chris Jackson
Jackson, a pollster and champion of data at SSRS, explains what our federal statistical system is, why it’s is valuable, why you should care about…
Oct 19
•
G. Elliott Morris
118
4
33
1:00:49
In closing weeks, Republicans go on defense
Plus, Latinos have moved left since 2024 at 2x the rate of the average voter. Your weekly political data roundup for October 18, 2026.
Oct 18
•
G. Elliott Morris
193
22
34
The Senate is one ordinary polling miss from a blowout
If Democrats beat today's polls by a normal margin, they'd win 56 Senate seats — including South Carolina and Nebraska. Things could get weird, fast
Oct 16
•
G. Elliott Morris
167
12
36
Democrats are a normal polling error away from 54+ Senate seats — or just 50
Both parties are a historically average polling miss away from controlling the Senate majority
Oct 15
•
G. Elliott Morris
and
David Nir
222
3
24
49:47
House race polling also points to a big blue wave
Our new "named congressional ballot" aligns with other metrics predicting Democratic dominance
Published on The Downballot
•
Oct 14
What is early voting telling us about the 2026 midterms?
A regularly updating live blog for early voting data and news, Strength In Numbers style
Oct 13
•
G. Elliott Morris
260
43
45
This site requires JavaScript to run correctly. Please
turn on JavaScript
or unblock scripts
